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DMK
Reply with quote  #31 
@Specky, great analysis. The only line I disagree with is that KKY should sit this round out and spend time building support on the ground. The 2018 election is one without a sitting president and so improves the chances for the opposition.

What you say about building support is however correct. My only wish is that KKY had started doing so before the 2012 election. In his place I would have been on the ground helping the party win as many parliamentary and local council seats as possible and yes, even the presidency.  That would have strengthened his candidacy today.

His lateness to the race does not however detract from the fact that he is currently the most marketable in the North and West. He needs to work on giving assurances to the party base about his intentions for the party. I'm sure he is doing so already.
KrooMan
Reply with quote  #32 
"I look at everything the various flag bearer candidates have done in their careers and I remain convinced KKY is best placed to not only attract this kind of investment but actually deliver once the investment is secured."  DMK

Chief DMK,

It is difficult to justify the above determination.  The African presidency is totally different from the work of an international civil servant.   The African presidency is a much more powerful position that affords the occupant of that office an unfettered latitude for independent action.  Conversely, the bureaucratic culture at the United Nations with its checks and balances acts as a counterbalance to any dictatorial ambitions.  Therefore, whereas it is easy to discern the true character of the African president, that of a leader in the United Nations system can be deceptively shelved within the constraints of the laws that govern that organization.

To be fair, JMB is the only aspirant with the experience of a national leader in the mold of the presidency.  Besides, the man has spilled his blood for his country fighting in a brutal civil war.  Many in JMB’s shoes could have pulled a Yayah Jammeh by cracking down on dissent with an iron fist while stealing millions of dollars.  JMB never did that.  Instead, he allowed the movement for a return to party politics to gain sway and peacefully handed power over to a civilian government.   Given this admirable background of the retired Brigadier, I would argue that many of the negative rhetoric that have been associated with him have been a desperate contortion of the man’s true character.

Accordingly, I think the supporters of JMB and KKY should cool down and allow the democratic process to hold sway.  Whoever emerges as winner of the flagbearer election next month should be accepted as leader of the SLPP.   Democracy is incompatible with any process that attempts to choose a leader solely on the basis of his perceived ability to attract foreign direct investment  to his country. 

Let the church say Amen.

Common Sense
Reply with quote  #33 
Is Alpha Timbo not marketable in the north and west? Why is every one overlooking this gem in their mist?

The Fullah and Temne DNA in him put him in good stead. Remember,  a Fullah almost robbed the APC a Parliamentary seat in a recent Parliamentary context in Tonkolili district. This is a place that is considered a an APC dominated constituency.

The SLPP analyst are sleeping. I hope Bio if he wins the party contest will consider Alpha Timbo as his running mate. Me think he is the fittest to take on the APC at this time.
Knice
Reply with quote  #34 
Wanjama, you make a good point about people earning their stripes, and not to be automatically granted the benefits of their parents accomplishments. On the other hand you are wrong about KKY only recently registering to be a member of the SLPP. You forget that the SLPP was illegal from around 1971 to about 1992. There was therefore no SLPP open for membership. One question: are you a registered member of the SLPP? Well neither am I. Many of us who never considered to be active in politics also never bothered to register as members of political parties. But now everything in Sierra Leone is political. Should those of us without party membership cards be denied participation in the affairs of our country?
Spectator 007
Reply with quote  #35 
@DMK: Now that it is becoming increasingly apparent that your man KKY stands absolutely no chance in clinching the SLPP nomination (deck heavily stacked against him from the start), what do you think he should do?
DMK
Reply with quote  #36 

@Specky, whether or not one believes JMB is the best man for the job, you have to admire the way he has strengthened his grip on the party. As @KrooMan points out, African politics is a specialist art and he has mastered it very well. I don't accept that a period as a military leader adequately prepared you for democratic leadership but he has done a good job of transitioning while retaining significant support. 
 
If I was advising KKY, I would say he needs to seek his own independent electoral mandate but to do so within SLPP. It is way too late in the day to form a new party and stand any chance of winning. His best bet is to politely decline any offer of a vice presidential ticket but to go instead for Mayor of Freetown and show what he can do on that smaller scale. He should continue to build a base within the party, backing SLPP candidates at all levels up and down the land both financially and with his presence and credibility.

I was born and raised, for the most part, in Freetown. There is a huge job to be done there in terms of youth unemployment, housing, transportation and traffic, sustainable energy, amenities, education, healthcare, the environment including flood defences, etc. etc. Doing a good job there gives you a platform whatever happens in the 2018 presidential elections.

Ps. The opinions expressed here are mine and are not intended to represent any insight into the strategy of KKY or his team.

DMK
Reply with quote  #37 
Sorry about the typo:

"I don't accept that a period as a military leader adequately prepares you for democratic leadership but he has done a good job of transitioning while retaining significant support."
Obai
Reply with quote  #38 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sam Kolleh

Methinks that a Summana/Yumkella ticket ..third force..coalition..or what have you,..will surely shock and capsize the "out of favored" corrupt tribalistic and criminal APC/SLPP political establishment responsible for bogging down the nation into a sick list since independence.
 

The stones that the builders refused may become the head corner stones !!!!  






 


A winning formula indeed
OrKaprah Kamajor
Reply with quote  #39 
"If I was advising KKY, I would say he needs to seek his own independent electoral mandate but to do so within SLPP. It is way too late in the day to form a new party and stand any chance of winning. His best bet is to politely decline any offer of a vice presidential ticket but to go instead for Mayor of Freetown and show what he can do on that smaller scale. He should continue to build a base within the party, backing SLPP candidates at all levels up and down the land both financially and with his presence and credibility". 


What a wicked and condescending thought from DMK! What a subversive advice!! KKY and his supporters will never listen to you.
From my standpoint KKY can still accept the running mate to Bio and be the front-runner in 2023. He can use his UN connections to exert tremendous pressure on Bio to step down on health grounds. He can also pull a Goodluck by using the best juju men from his Susu tribe to inflict Bio with a medical spell that will render him unfit to rule. But unfortunately these are all surreal because winning against the formidable APC transcends all imaginations or intrigues.

KrooMan
Reply with quote  #40 
Chief DMK,

Great insights.  It is difficult to understand why Salone politicians from the Diaspora do not understand the significance of building a strong political base before running for the State House.

Ahmad Tejan Kabbah may not have held political office before the presidency but he spent substantial time working as a senior adviser to the NPRC before competing for leadership of the SLPP.  Besides, ATK was already well known in the four corners of Salone before retiring as a UN bureaucrat.  He had worked extensively as a District Officer in almost all the districts and also as a Permanent Secretary in a couple of influential ministries.  

Additionally, despite being identified as a Northerner, ATK was a fluent Mende speaker, born of a Mende mother in Kailahun.  Voters everywhere fall for a candidate that they can easily identify well.

Now, to see previous candidates like John Ernest Leigh, Sembu Koroma, Kadie Johnson-Cole, Usman Boie-Kamara and now Kandeh Yumkella who have all never cut their political teeth in any area of influence in Salone, vying to lead the grand ole party is actually laughable.

Thus, your advice to KKY to seek the Freetown mayoralty is spot on.  Guys like Siaka Stevens used the Freetown mayoralty as a stepping stone to bigger and better things.

 As things stand right now, KKY is only strong in the Western Area.  I do not see him running a strong race in national elections in the North, South or East because he lacks political capital in those areas of the country.  It takes time to build political capital.
Salone Trump
Reply with quote  #41 
Is Alpha Timbo not marketable in the north and west? Why is every one overlooking this gem in their mist? @ CS

Alpha Timbo will become marketable after Foulah allow their "daughters" to marry Sierra Leoneans..

BTW what happened to a "Foulah" president in Guinea??

The Foulahs have taken over the country's economy and now they want political power?

Wake up people of Sierra Leone to take your country from strangers planning to take you over.

I say to you sell outs,.. if there are no Sierra Leonean Ministers, Parliamentarians ,Judges, Lawyers, or Business Tycoons in Guinea thenthere should be  NO Timbo or Allieu Pat Sowe for leadership in Sierra Leone!
KL
Reply with quote  #42 
Something about KKY that have yet to be mentioned is the fact that the fellow is very handsome and probably charismatic. With ties to the North and and Southeast,  this fellow, with a prominent Salone woman as running mate, can pull a surprise win. 
KAMARA
Reply with quote  #43 
The issue is whether Yumkella is planning to win the 2018 elections and be instrumental in SLPP"S victory or preparing to win the 2023 elections. Forming a new party at this juncture is a little too late, if he is looking for victory. SLPP  needs Yumkella's input to achieve victory  and Yumkella also needs SLPP .

My advice  for Sierra Leone politicians  is to stay and build up your party. Not everyone is destined to be the President of Sierra Leone. Learn from the actions from Charles Margai and Usu Boie Kamara. Where are they now? A Bio and Yumkella will be formidable.

The time is ripe for SLPP to win. As in 1996, the electorate is looking for change. If SLPP can put forth a ticket that can appeal to the western area and certain sections of the North, they can clinch victory.
Question
Reply with quote  #44 
"A Bio and Yumkella will be formidable." 

Why not the reverse?
Ginham
Reply with quote  #45 
"A Bio and Yumkella will be formidable." 

"Why not the reverse?"   Question


The reverse will not work because it will be unacceptable to the party's base - the Southeast.  Let's face it, can Yumkella defeat Bio in a flagbearer election?
Spectator 007
Reply with quote  #46 
Ginham, in my long held opinion, none of the aspiring candidates can beat Bio in an election for standard bearer. The question I think many keen observers want to know is- is he the most electable candidate the SLPP have to offer?
KrooMan
Reply with quote  #47 
"The question I think many keen observers want to know is- is he the most electable candidate the SLPP have to offer?"  Spectator 007


Spectator ,

What if Bio is not "the most electable candidate" of the SLPP?  Should he be pushed aside in the event that he wins the SLPP flagbearer election for the SLPP's "most electable candidate"?  How do you determine a party's "most electable candidate" in Sierra Leone. 
Spectator 007
Reply with quote  #48 
KrooMan,
Even in advanced democracies many political parties do not elect the most popular candidate to lead them into national elections. Example: Labour party in UK

If winning is very important, then electability has to be taken into consideration while not ignoring the candidate's adherence to party programs/ideology.

So to answer your question, I see nothing wrong if the party elects the Brigadier to lead them again.

Now back to my question, who in your opinion is the most electable among the aspirants?
KrooMan
Reply with quote  #49 
"Now back to my question, who in your opinion is the most electable among the aspirants?"  Spectator

Chief Spectator,

You are asking me a similar question that I asked you.  How do you know which candidate is the most electable in a party in Sierra Leone?  Is that not why we have flagbearer elections in Sierra Leone and primaries in the United States?   To me the winner of the SLPP flagbearer election has to be that party's most electable candidate.

Was Donald Trump, the winner of the Republican primaries, not the Republican party's most electable candidate?

A tendency among many folks is to argue that while Maada Bio may win the SLPP flagbearer contest, for the presidential election, Kandeh Yumkella is the more electable candidate.  How do these people know that?  Can KKY energize the party's base in the Southeast in the same manner that JMB can?  Can KKY run a strong race in the North?  I really doubt it.  He did not grow up in the North.  The guy is a Bo Town guy.  That leaves only the Western Area where his popularity among Creoles will not be sufficient to get elected president. 
Question
Reply with quote  #50 
I would like to introduce this clip about failure, and then come up with my two cents.

Spectator 007
Reply with quote  #51 
KrooMan,

I really do not know which SLPP candidate is the most electable. One thing I do know is that if KKY was the candidate and Bio did not support him, KKY would certainly lose to the APC candidate.

In the US polls suggest candidates like Kasich and Rubio would have fared better against Clinton than Trump. Remember that Trump lost the popular vote by about 3 million. We don't have any meaningful polling.
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