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Reply with quote  #1 
Hello forumites and comrades. Admittedly, and to my great regret, I am late tuning in to the election and as such unaware of likely or projected outcomes. I have caught only snippets of commentary here and there, and am wondering the strength of the Grand Coalition and their candidate, KKY, what portion of the vote they could net? They seem to me, with the little attention I have paid, to be potentially stronger than the PMDC was in 2007. Is that the case? Or is the picture distorted when looking only at diaspora commentary?  I am impressed by the forumites who were formerly on opposite sides who now have come together behind KKY as the best person to lead Salone, including Bra E.

So I ask these questions: What are the chances they could disrupt the election and leave neither traditional party with a clear majority to rule? Will there be a second round? Is there a chance for a coalition government? And, if so, which major party would NGC enter coalition with?
Big Joe
Reply with quote  #2 

From what I know communicating with folks on the ground, a runoff is expected between Julius Maada Bio (SLPP) and Dr. Samura Kamara (APC).   Dr. Kandeh Yumkella will not beat any of these two older parties due to the regional support that these parties enjoy - APC (North) and SLPP (Southeast). 

Yumkella might win the Western Area or at the very least might be very competitive there.  The Western Area has always being known for its swing voters.  And during the campaign the youth of that area gravitated more towards Yumkella than to Bio or Kamara.

I do not expect a coalition government as a clear winner will emerge in the second round.  Moreover, given our 'winner take all' tradition, only the winning party will form the government. 

I also do not expect Yumkella to endorse either Bio or Kamara.  There is too much bad blood among these folks.  However, since the NGC is largely made up of former SLPP and former APC folks, I expect these folks to vote for their former parties in the runoff.
Spectator 007
Reply with quote  #3 
@Sage- NGC strength in the diaspora community is very high...most certainly higher than on the ground. Whether these supporters will be able to influence people they know on the ground is something we will soon find out.

I have been told that the turnout is very high and many young people turned out to vote.
Reply with quote  #4 
Yes it may just be too early for a third force to dislodge the two traditional parties . KKY and NGC will finish in third place. However as to the question of a coalition , such is a strong possibility for the parliamentary seats . It is unlikely a single party will have an outright majority in parliament . That scenario may be what makes the country win . The erosion of our democracy started when our Parliaments became rubber stamps for the executive. I sense NGC , ADP , C4 C and CDP may win some seats and I don’t see most of them agreeing to a coalition with either party .
Reply with quote  #5 
Thanks for the response. Much as I suspected. Building a new political party from the ground up takes a lot of work. If the NGC win some seats in Parliament then they should continue that work from there, as well as in the communities on the ground wherever they can get a nucleus of support. At some point, they may become a viable political option in an altered political landscape.
Reply with quote  #6 
I agree Sage I hope they can hold on and maintain their identity . The political graveyard of Salone is full of smaller parties who wanted instant access to the pie and got used by these traditional parties . Sorbeh in 96 and PMDC in 2007 . I truly believe if Kandeh wins that seat in Kambia , he will become the de facto opposition leader regardless of how many seats his party wins. That will be a great platform for him to win the next election. But 5 years is a long time away.
Spectator 007
Reply with quote  #7 
As I have stated in the past, if NGC polls betweeen 10-15% in the presidential election, win around 5-10 seats including KKY’s, stays neutral in the runoff, they will have a future if they play their cards right.

Most keen observers expect NGC to come third.
Spectator 007
Reply with quote  #8 
Results from polling booths are making the rounds on social media. Some are rather interesting, some suprisings, while others expected
Spectator 007
Reply with quote  #9 
Watch Kambia and Western Area returns. This will determine NGC’s future.

Wach dem two area dae!
Reply with quote  #10 
I was hoping for a run-off, and also hoping that Yumkella would be in the mix. But a coalition government in Sierra Leone? NEVER! Tribalism is so entrenched in the country that a coalition, i.e. a team composed of diverse tribal representation is sadly out of the question. 
Head Boy
Reply with quote  #11 
Right Now Maada Bio is looking good. And if it comes to a matter a run-off with potentially the BEST and STRONGEST CARD on the table, the Brigadier will have to think his options carefully.
Until then, those people with a skin in the game must keep in mind that
RESPECT is a two way street and Julius Maada Bio will NEVER allow the sacred mission to dethrone APC to become twiddled by some negative bunch of irrelevant cyber windbags and impish political lightweights.

Spectator 007
Reply with quote  #12 
“RESPECT is a two way street and Julius Maada Bio will NEVER allow the sacred mission to dethrone APC to become twiddled by some negative bunch of irrelevant cyber windbags and impish political lightweights.” - Head Boy

Welcome back the great Head Boy.

What does “sacred mission” mean in the context you have used it?

By the way, are you on the ground?
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