Reply with quote #1
The NEC has just announced another 25% of the votes. With 75% of the votes now in, SLPP has polled 848,438 votes with the APC having polled 833, 519 votes. The remaining 25% will be very critical in deciding whether there will be a runoff.
Reply with quote #2
DMK had predicted Bio would slightly win the first round and then ...
I searched for the link to the thread but could not find it.
Reply with quote #3
Don't be too sure about the runoff. My sources say that the Brigadier will get the 12% needed to win the presidency
Reply with quote #4
I have relied on http://necsl2018.org
The trend indicates The Brigadier and The Doctor have been running close, with The Brigadier slightly ahead now.
At 75% progressive results release only a massive cancellation of votes in APC strongholds will put The Brigadier over 55%
By the way, there is a guy on L-TAMU who has a keen eye for Salone election projections. He has been on the money since 2007 in terms of calling runoffs, who will win and approximate percentages once early returns start coming in. His percentages for this round a day after elections closed were:
1st place: 46
He said APC and SLPP would make the runoff months ago
DMK is our version of that young man.
Dem sabi luk gron backed with good analysis
Reply with quote #5
I am not a luk gron man. But simple arithmetic dictates that since the Brigadier and the Doctor have been blowing each other out in their respective strongholds and since the 25% of votes left and more from the Southeast than from the North and West, it is not a stretch that the Brigadier will get the 12% needed to finish off the Doctor. Man, a runoff will be too expensive for an impoverished country like ours. I am NGC but would like the Brigadier to finish off these Kokobehs.
Goodbye Red Menace
Reply with quote #6
Bio will take it in the 2nd round. They are slightly ahead with 75% reporting, and Yumkella have 7% of the lesser candidate vote, ahead of Samsumana. Bio just needs a portion of that in the second round to clinch it.
Reply with quote #7
Actually throughout the progressive results release process, there have always been more polling stations in Red territory.
At each stage, 25% of total of polling in each district have been announced. This is why the results have not changed that much.
If NGC did not use a random sampling process but deliberately selected APC polling stations where votes were high and SLPP polling stations where votes were not high in order to make APC look good, that would be really interesting. In such a scenario, the last 25% would result in a significant increase in The Brigadier’s lead and make APC totally freak out.
Reply with quote #8
In the final 25%, there will be recounting in 83 polling stations in primarily APC strongholds. This is perhaps in response to NGC and C4C challenges.
If NEC discovers overvoting will the Christiana Thorpe disqualification rule be applied?
Reply with quote #9
I think NEC may have used a random sampling process. However, polling stations where over voting had taken place were left out of the count: Kenema - 4 Bonthe - 10 Tonkolili - 6 Kambia - 31 Karene - 1 PortLoko - 23 Western Area - 8 As you can see, fourteen polling stations are in the SLPP stroghold while sixty-nine are in the APC stronghold. Moreover, APC constituencies are more populated than SLPP constituencies. Thus, if these votes are voided as Salone law requires, the APC will suffer immensely. This might just be enough to give the Brigadier the required percentage of votes to clinch the race. I hear that the NEC chief has asked for more security as he gets ready to call the remaining results. Something tells me that things do not look good for the incumbent.
Reply with quote #10
The Brigadier needs to finish Tolongbo in this round otherwise he looses. I say this not because I favour Tolongbo but simply going by the desperation of Tolongbo to stay in power. We have already seen their willingness to use thugs and the coercive forces to intimidate even the Brigadier in broad daylight with their silly hacking suspicions. In a second round Tolongbo would have known all those Tokpoi polling stations . All they will do will be to set Gbos Gbos in the Tokpoi strongholds, slow down the voting while they increase their numbers in the north . voila they win ! So I hate to say this but Tokpoi needs its modern day Kendeka to resist that strategy.
Reply with quote #11
Bra Mayima, you and I must have been reading from the same script while typing.
Reply with quote #12
If APC gets zero votes in this final progressive results release due to rejection of results by NEC as punishment for over voting, taking into account the voting pattern so far, is it mathematically post for Bio to exceed 55% of total votes to avoid a runoff?
Reply with quote #13
Gahinteh is right. The APC will be sure not to allow power to slip through its hands in a second round.
Reply with quote #14
Reliable sources state that the remaining votes total 650,000. SLPP only needs 78,000 of these remaining votes to get the required 12% to win. Granted that many of these votes are going to be voided and that the majority of the voided votes will be in Tolongbo territory, if I were the Brigadier, I will started quenching my throat with a cold beer. @ Sage, If many of the opposition parties decide to form an alliance with the SLPP as is expected, I don't think there is much that the APC would do to remain in power. Elections in Africa are now heavily monitored by international observers. If the APC resorts to violence and intimidation to maintain power, Ernest Koroma and many APC grandees will find themselves in the Hague answering questions in the International Criminal Court (ICC).
Reply with quote #15
Bio needs about 590,000 votes for him to get 55% . That is not possible.
Reply with quote #16
“Bio needs about 590,000 votes for him to get 55% . That is not possible” - saba
“Reliable sources state that the remaining votes total 650,000. SLPP only needs 78,000 of these remaining votes to get the required 12% to win.” - Bra Mayima
Me haide dae hart/hurt
Estimates 78,000 and 590,000. Several magnitudes In difference
Can someone mathematically break it down for us non-analytical folks?
First what is the approximate total number of votes given the turn out and or numbers recorded so far x 4/3 less 83 typical polling station numbers in the north? And what is 55% of that number?
Reply with quote #17
Saba is an APC Pikin that does not understand mathematics. Bio is now at 43%, meaning that he needs 12% of the remaining votes to reach the 55% threshold. If there are 650,000 remaining votes as Bra Mayima states, then Bio only needs 78,000 votes to win. Remember also that many votes from the North and western Area are going to be voided, which makes the situation more favorable for the Brigadier. At this point, I don't think there is going to be runoff. Ernest Koroma better start negotiating with the Brigadier for an easy passage. LOL!!!
Reply with quote #18
Do you agree that approximately 75% of the votes have been cast been counted and reported?
Reply with quote #19
Try these steps
1. @75% progressive reporting total number of votes cast = A =
2. Assuming each 25% set of progressive result totals is approximately equal, remaining votes = A/3
3. Total votes = A + A/3 =
4. 55% of total = 0.55(A + A/3) =
5. Votes needed for candidate to reach 55% of total
= value shown above in step 4 less votes @75% progressive result reporting
Additional Assumption: no polling station cancellation
I do not have a calculator so someone please fill in the blanks
Reply with quote #21
Why are you complicating a very straightforward issue? Yes I agree that 75% of the votes have been counted. If Maada Bio has 43% of the 75% of votes counted, then he needs only 12% of the remaining votes to reach the 55% threshold. It stands to reason then that assuming there are 650,000 votes remaining, Bio only needs 78,000 votes to reach the 55% threshold. Where I am wrong?
Reply with quote #22
“ If Maada Bio has 43% of the 75% of votes counted, then he needs only 12% of the remaining votes to reach the 55% threshold.” My good friend Sir Beresford
Let’s say there are 100 votes
First 75 cast
43% of 75 = 32.25. Meaning for 75 votes cast, The Brigadier has about 32.
25 remaining votes
Of the remaining 25 he needs 22 to be added to the 32 to reach 55.
Do you agree with the above computation?
If you do then, the % of remaining votes he needs is (22/25)x100% around 88%.
With around 650,000 votes per quarter you have 0.88 (650,000) = 572,000
First 75 votes. 32 out of 75 is around 43%
Last 25 votes. 22 out of 25 is 88%
Reply with quote #23
There would be a run off. Being that the slpp needs 78,000 votes from the remaining 650,00 votes to clinch the presidency, the APC also needs 77,000 votes from the same 650,000 votes to reach the 55% mark. Mind you, the lots of these votes are said to be in APC strongholds so if these votes are not voided (which I strongly believe they would) they would increase the APC'S chances of of first passing the post. At the same token, if NEC decides to to void the remaining 25% due to over voting then no party will meet the required 55% threshold, hence the run off.
Reply with quote #24
Correction: The APC needs 19,500 votes from the same 650,000 remaining votes.
Reply with quote #25
Alex are you being facetious or serious with your projections?
Reply with quote #26
Baresford, assignment for you. Divide bio's 848438 + 78000 votes to the total expected votes
which is 1958191+650000. You will never get 55% . But if you add 848438+590000 divided by 1958191+650000. You will get 55%. How i got to 590000 votes is also your assignment. Thank you.
cocorioko is a disgrace
Reply with quote #27
Will someone please ask the Deacon at Cocorioko to take off those misleading headlines about commanding leads?
The election was always going to end in a run-off.
Reply with quote #28
Specky do the math. We have a remainder of 650,000. One party needs 78,000 and the other needs 77,000 from the 650,000. The fact that the remaining 650,000 is are predominantly coming from the APC's Strong hold gives the APC a better chance of first passing the post (that is if the votes are not voided, (which I believe they would be voided as per Sierra Leone law). So if the votes are voided then there would be no one winner. Is as simple as that.
Reply with quote #29
Sierra Leone News: Registration ends with over 3.1 million Voters After 42 days of the voter registration process, and 100% of the reports from the 3,300 centers have been collated, the National Electoral Commission (NEC) has released the provisional registration figures which show a grand total of 3.1million (3,128,967) as having registered as eligible voters in readiness to vote in the 7th March 2018 General Elections. The first phase of the registration process ended on the 16th April 2017, but Members of Parliament requested for an extension of two weeks to enable more people go through the process. The additional 14 days period ended on Sunday 30th April. With 100% of the centres having reported, the North maintains its lead in the entire process with 32% or 998, 750, followed closely by the Western Area with 28% or 890, 152. The South and East with 20% each; 620, 826 and 619, 229 respectively. Western Urban has the highest number of registered voters with 602,760, while Bonthe District got the lowest with 92,437. In a release by the Commission, it “stresses that the figures are provisional at this stage” and that it will “continue with the next stages of the Voter Registration process that include, inter-alia, data export and transmission of data captured in all 3,300 centres nationwide; data processing at the NEC National Data Centre, de-duplication and adjudication and later, the printing and exhibition of the Provisional Voters Register (PVR)”. The Commission continues to encourage all eligible Sierra Leoneans to exercise patience and restraint as it strives to make the voter registration exercise credible, accurate and transparent. NEC further acknowledges “the positive contributions of all election stakeholders that participated actively in the successful conduct of field data capture process”, By Betty Milton
Reply with quote #30
Mighty Pa Spectator 007,
Your math is wrong. This tells me that you been dae play tonko belay wae di other student den bin dae class. LOL!!!. Beresford is correct. If Bio already has 43% of the counted votes, then he needs 12% of the remaining votes to reach 55%. Simple, simple, Pa Spectator.